The Price Of Acrylonitrile Continues To Decline Before And After The Spring Festival.

In 2020, the price of acrylonitrile market fell in anticipation. As of January 8th, the price of the mainstream port outlet in eastern China was near 10700 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year. On the basic side, the supply performance increased, while the downstream demand remained weak. Before the Spring Festival, there was a general enthusiasm for stock preparation. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to decline after the Spring Festival.

Anqing Petrochemical restart supply side is becoming more relaxed

In January 3rd, the long-awaited Anqing petrochemical company finally drove, the 130 thousand tons of equipment were successfully fed and produced, and the other 80 thousand tons of equipment will also be restarted in January 9th. With the resumption of production in Anqing Petrochemical Company, the supply of acrylonitrile is easing, and it tends to be loose. In January, the total domestic output is expected to grow by about 15 thousand tons. In addition, there is still a maintenance line for Jilin and PetroChina in January. The supply will continue to grow after the restart in mid and late term.

Acrylic fiber production and loss reduction downstream factories continue to leave

While the supply of acrylonitrile increased, there was no bright demand for downstream demand. The acrylic fiber industry still maintained a limited production rhythm under deficit conditions, and the overall start-up load was less than 60%. The demand for ABS and acrylamide is relatively stable, and there is stocking demand before the festival. However, some factories in the acrylamide section have a shutdown plan during the Spring Festival. In addition, other small and medium-sized enterprises have just needed the rhythm of stocking, and generally watch the market after the holidays. Therefore, there is no stock intention, and will start off next week, so the purchasing enthusiasm is general.

It is difficult to expand the time before delivery.

Based on the above supply and demand performance, the acrylonitrile market has a strong atmosphere and is still pessimistic about the post holiday market. Therefore, the suppliers actively sell the goods, and the middle business is constantly dropping. However, due to the shorter trading cycle this month, the long distance logistics stopped after 20, which also resulted in more time to pick up the goods, while the factory inventory remained low, and it was difficult to meet the centralized delivery of large quantities. Especially before January 10th, the supply increment was not much, and the manufacturers' delivery was still very tight, which also restricted the price of acrylonitrile price falling. It is understood that market participants generally expect the settlement price to be up to 10800 yuan / ton this month. Therefore, the decline of the intermediate business quotation is also more convergent, and the space for manufacturers to drop prices in a low inventory state is even more limited.

On the whole, the price drop of acrylonitrile before mid January is more likely to be caused by bearish expectations and merchants' risk aversion. For the post holiday market, the profit will be concentrated and released. Acrylonitrile manufacturers also have stock accumulation during the Spring Festival, while the downstream rework is slow. Besides, there is no room for growth in other downstream areas except acrylonitrile. At that time, the price of acrylonitrile will increase, and the spot market price will probably fall below 10000 yuan.